The following table provides predictions for the four main categories for the 97th Academy Awards presented on March 2, 2025. The nominees are presented in order of expected probability to win, with the probabilities (in percentages) given in the second column. Eventual winners shown in bold
In a nutshell, the predictions are based on a statistical analysis of past Oscar history. In particular, I identify the influence of factors associated with past winners (such as other Oscar nominations, total number of Oscar nominations, previous Oscar nominations/wins, Golden Globe wins, Guild wins). I then calculate a score for each current nominee based on these factors - nominees with a higher score have more chance of winning (see the notes column in the table). For further details of how the predictions were made click here.
| Picture: This race is unusually wide open this year. Anora is well placed to add the Best Picture Oscar to its Producer's Guild Award. But The Brutalist, which won the Golden Globe for Best Drama and has 10 nominations overall, and Emilia Pérez, which won the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy and has the most nominations overall (13), are also in the running. Next in line are A Complete Unknown and The Substance, which both have all-important Best Director nominations. It's unlikely that either of these or any of the remaining five nominated films will win, but Wicked with 10 nominations overall leads this chasing pack. | |
| Anora | 54% |
| The Brutalist | 18 |
| Emilia Pérez | 18 |
| A Complete Unknown | 3 |
| The Substance | 2 |
| Wicked | 2 |
| Conclave | 1 |
| Dune: Part Two | 1 |
| I'm Still Here | 1 |
| Nickel Boys | <1 |
| Director: Unusually, none of the nominated directors have been nominated previously for this award. The director of Anora, Sean Baker is strongly favoured to win this year, having already won this year's Director's Guild award. Brady Corbet, who directed The Brutalist, and Jacques Audiard, who directed Emilia Pérez, have an outside chance of upsetting the odds, although Brady Corbet did win for Best Director at this year's Golden Globes. However, James Mangold and Coralie Fargeat, for A Complete Unknown and The Substance, respectively, would be surprising winners. | |
| Sean Baker for Anora | 92% |
| Brady Corbet for The Brutalist | 3 |
| Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez | 3 |
| James Mangold for A Complete Unknown | 1 |
| Coralie Fargeat for The Substance | 1 |
| Actor in a Leading Role: Another relatively open race in which, based on his Screen Actors Guild win, Timothée Chalamet (who was previously nominated for 2017's Call Me by Your Name) is in a strong position for portraying Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. Adrien Brody in The Brutalist also has a decent chance of adding another Oscar to his Golden Globe (Drama) award. However, his chances of winning this year are reduced since he previously won the Oscar for Best Actor in a Leading Role for 2002's The Pianist. Ralph Fiennes (who was previously nominated for 1996's The English Patient) and Colman Domingo (who was nominated last year for Rustin) aren't completely out of the running, but first-time nominee Sebastian Stan has only a slim chance of causing an upset. Interestingly, Stan won this year's Golden Globe (Musical or Comedy) lead actor award, but for A Different Man not for The Apprentice. | |
| Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown | 77% |
| Adrien Brody in The Brutalist | 15 |
| Ralph Fiennes in Conclave | 5 |
| Colman Domingo in Sing Sing | 2 |
| Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice | 1 |
| Actress in a Leading Role: This category too is quite competitive with Demi Moore in the driving seat for The Substance given her Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globe (Musical or Comedy) wins. Golden Globe (Drama) winner, Fernanda Torres, isn't too far behind for I'm Still Here. And, since Anora is one of the front-running movies this year, Mikey Madison is also in with a shout. Karla Sofía Gascón and Cynthia Erivo, for Emilia Pérez and Wicked, respectively, have just a slim chance of upsetting the odds. All are first-time nominees except Erivo, who was previously nominated for Lead Actress in 2019's Harriet. | |
| Demi Moore in The Substance | 70% |
| Fernanda Torres in I'm Still Here | 15 |
| Mikey Madison in Anora | 8 |
| Karla Sofía Gascón in Emilia Pérez | 5 |
| Cynthia Erivo in Wicked | 3 |
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