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2022 Oscar Predictions

The following table provides predictions for the four main categories for the 2022 Academy Awards to be presented on March 27, 2022. The nominees are presented in order of expected probability to win, with the probabilities (in percentages) given in the second column.

In a nutshell, the predictions are based on a statistical analysis of past Oscar history. In particular, I identify the influence of factors associated with past winners (such as other Oscar nominations, total number of Oscar nominations, previous Oscar nominations/wins, Golden Globe wins, Guild wins). I then calculate a score for each current nominee based on these factors - nominees with a higher score have more chance of winning (see the notes column in the table). For further details of how the predictions were made click here.

Picture: This race is unusually wide open this year. The Power of the Dog, which has the most nominations overall, is well placed to add the Best Picture Oscar to its Golden Globe (Drama) win. West Side Story is in the running too having won the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy, followed by Belfast, which has a number of Oscar nominations in the more predictive categories, and CODA, which unexpectedly won this year's Producer's Guild Award. Next in line are Dune, with the second highest number of nominations, and then Drive My Car and Licorice Pizza, which both have all-important Best Director nominations. It's unlikely that any of the remaining three nominated films will win.
The Power of the Dog 54%
West Side Story 16
Belfast 12
CODA 7
Dune 3
Drive My Car 3
Licorice Pizza 2
King Richard 1
Don't Look Up 1
Nightmare Alley 1
Director: Jane Campion, director of The Power of the Dog and previously nominated for the Best Director Oscar for 1993's The Piano, is strongly favoured to win this year, having already won the Director's Guild and Golden Globe Director awards. Steven Spielberg has been nominated for Best Director seven times before and won twice (for 1993's Schindler's List and 1998's Saving Private Ryan) and it's not impossible he could win again this year. Kenneth Branagh (with one previous nomination) and Paul Thomas Anderson (with two previous nominations) could also upset the odds, but first-time nominee Ryûsuke Hamaguchi would be a surprising winner.
Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog 94%
Steven Spielberg for West Side Story 3
Kenneth Branagh for Belfast 2
Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza 1
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car <1
Actor in a Leading Role: All five nominees for Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role have been nominated at least once previously, but Will Smith (two previous nominations) is in the strongest position to win this year having already won the Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globe (Drama) Best Actor awards for his performance in King Richard. Benedict Cumberbatch (one previous nomination), Andrew Garfield (one previous nomination), and Javier Bardem (two previous nominations) could all upset the odds, but Denzel Washington is unlikely to win this year as he won previously for 2001's Training Day. However, Anthony Hopkins was a repeat winner last year for The Father (after previously winning for 1991's The Silence of the Lambs), so Washington cannot be completely ruled out of the running.
Will Smith in King Richard 97%
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog 2
Andrew Garfield in tick, tick...BOOM! 1
Javier Bardem in Being the Ricardos <1
Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth <1
Actress in a Leading Role: Like Best Picture, this is also a pretty tight race, with all five nominees in with a reasonable chance of winning. Jessica Chastain (previously nominated for 2012's Zero Dark Thirty) has the edge given her Screen Actors Guild win, while Nicole Kidman (who won previously for 2002's The Hours) isn't too far behind after winning the Golden Globe (Drama) Best Actress award. A little further behind are first-time nominee Kristen Stewart, Penélope Cruz (previously nominated for 2006's Volver), and Olivia Colman (who won previously for 2018's The Favourite).
Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye 53%
Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos 25
Kristen Stewart in Spencer 8
Penélope Cruz in Parallel Mothers 8
Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter 5

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