The following table provides predictions for the four main categories for the 2009 Academy Awards presented on Feb 22, 2009. The nominees are presented in order of expected probability to win, with the probabilities (in percentages) given in the second column. Eventual winners shown in bold.
| Picture: Benjamin Button scores high for receiving thirteen overall nominations, but Slumdog Millionaire with ten overall nominations has the edge due to its Golden Globe and Producer's Guild wins. Milk falls in the middle with eight overall nominations, while Frost/Nixon and The Reader trail with five nominations each. | |
| Slumdog Millionaire | 59% |
| The Curious Case of Benjamin Button | 33 |
| Milk | 5 |
| Frost/Nixon | 1 |
| The Reader | 1 |
| Director: First-time nominee Danny Boyle benefits from his Director's Guild win, giving him an advantage over other first-time nominee David Fincher. The three remaining nominees gain some benefit from having been nominated before (twice in the case of Stephen Daldry), but not enough to give them much chance of winning this year. | |
| Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire | 81% |
| David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button | 8 |
| Gus Van Sant for Milk | 5 |
| Stephen Daldry for The Reader | 3 |
| Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon | 3 |
| Actor in a Leading Role: Sean Penn scores big for his Screen Actors Guild win, for being nominated in a movie that has also been nominated for Best Picture, and for his four previous lead actor nominations. However, his previous lead actor win for 2003's Mystic River reduces his chance of winning again this year, making this category a little more unpredictable. Brad Pitt and Frank Langella benefit from having been nominated in movies that have also been nominated for Best Picture, while popular favorite Mickey Rourke gets a boost from his Golden Globe (drama) acting win. Richard Jenkins should be considered a real long shot this year. Overall, this category seems the hardest to call of the four major races this year. | |
| Sean Penn in Milk | 42% |
| Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button | 23 |
| Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler | 22 |
| Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon | 11 |
| Richard Jenkins in The Visitor | 2 |
| Actress in a Leading Role: Kate Winslet scores big for Golden Globe (drama) and Screen Actors Guild awards (albeit in "Supporting Role" categories), and also for being nominated in a movie that has also been nominated for Best Picture. Meryl Streep also benefits from her Screen Actors Guild award, but her previous lead actress win for 1982's Sophie's Choice reduces her chance of winning again this year. This category seems to be the least competitive of the four major races this year, with Anne Hathaway, Angelina Jolie, and Melissa Leo all real long shots. | |
| Kate Winslet in The Reader | 92% |
| Meryl Streep in Doubt | 4 |
| Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married | 1 |
| Angelina Jolie in Changeling | 1 |
| Melissa Leo in Frozen River | 1 |
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