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2024 Oscar Predictions

The following table provides predictions for the four main categories for the 2023 Academy Awards to be presented on March 10, 2024. The nominees are presented in order of expected probability to win, with the probabilities (in percentages) given in the second column.

In a nutshell, the predictions are based on a statistical analysis of past Oscar history. In particular, I identify the influence of factors associated with past winners (such as other Oscar nominations, total number of Oscar nominations, previous Oscar nominations/wins, Golden Globe wins, Guild wins). I then calculate a score for each current nominee based on these factors - nominees with a higher score have more chance of winning (see the notes column in the table). For further details of how the predictions were made click here.

Picture: Oppenheimer with 13 nominations is well placed to add the Best Picture Oscar to its Producer's Guild and Golden Globe (Drama) wins. Golden Globe (Musical or Comedy) winner Poor Things, which has 11 nominations, is the next most likely to win, followed by director Martin Scorsese's 10th Oscar nominated movie, Killers of the Flower Moon, which has 10 nominations. Each of these three movies also benefits from a Best Director nomination, as does Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. It's very unlikely that any of the remaining five nominated films will win.
Oppenheimer 88%
Poor Things 7
Killers of the Flower Moon 2
Anatomy of a Fall 1
The Zone of Interest 1
Barbie <1
Maestro <1
American Fiction <1
The Holdovers <1
Past Lives <1
Director: The director of Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan, who was nominated in this category previously for 2017's Dunkirk, is strongly favoured to win this year, having already won this year's Director's Guild award. Martin Scorsese has been nominated for Best Director nine times before and won once (for 2006's The Departed), but it's unlikely, though not impossible, that he will win again this year. Yorgos Lanthimos, previously nominated for directing 2018's The Favorite, also has an outside chance of upsetting the odds, but first-time nominees Jonathan Glazer and Justine Triet would be surprising winners.
Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer 93%
Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon 4
Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things 3
Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest <1
Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall <1
Actor in a Leading Role: Cillian Murphy would seem to be a lock for winning an Oscar for Best Actor in a Leading Role for his performance in Oppenheimer, as he's already won the Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globe (Drama) Best Actor awards. Paul Giamatti, winner of the Golden Globe (Musical or Comedy) Best Actor award, is next in line, followed by Bradley Cooper, who has been nominated in this category four times before (for 2018's A Star Is Born, 2014's American Sniper, and 2012's Silver Linings Playbook). First-time nominees, Jeffrey Wright and Colman Domingo, have a slim chance of causing an upset in this category.
Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer 98%
Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers 1
Bradley Cooper in Maestro 1
Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction <1
Colman Domingo in Rustin <1
Actress in a Leading Role: First-time nominee Lily Gladstone scores big for Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globe (Drama) wins and is likely to win again here. Two-time nominee and Golden Globe (Musical or Comedy) winner, Emma Stone, has the next best chance of adding to her previous Lead Actress win for 2016's La La Land. Three-time nominee Carey Mulligan, first-time nominee Sandra Hüller, and four-time nominee Annette Bening are not really in the running to win this year.
Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon 88%
Emma Stone in Poor Things 8
Carey Mulligan in Maestro 2
Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall 2
Annette Bening in Nyad 1

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