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2023 Oscar Predictions

The following table provides predictions for the four main categories for the 2023 Academy Awards to be presented on March 12, 2023. The nominees are presented in order of expected probability to win, with the probabilities (in percentages) given in the second column. Eventual winners shown in bold

Picture: The film with the most nominations, Everything Everywhere All At Once, is in a good position to add the Best Picture Oscar to its Producer's Guild win. Golden Globe (Musical or Comedy) winner, The Banshees of Inisherin, is the next most likely to win, followed by Golden Globe (Drama) winner, The Fabelmans. Each of these three movies also benefits from a Best Director nomination. Tár gets a boost from having nominations in the key categories of director, lead actor, screenplay, cinematography, and film editing, giving it an outside chance of causing an upset. It's very unlikely that any of the remaining six nominated films will win.
Everything Everywhere All At Once 79%
The Banshees of Inisherin 10
The Fabelmans 4
Tár 3
All Quiet on the Western Front 1
Triangle of Sadness 1
Elvis 1
Top Gun: Maverick 1
Avatar: The Way of Water <1
Women Talking <1
Director: First-time nominees Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (together known as "Daniels"), directors of Everything Everywhere All At Once are strongly favoured to win this year, having already won the Director's Guild award. Steven Spielberg has been nominated for Best Director eight times before and won twice (for 1993's Schindler's List and 1998's Saving Private Ryan), but it's unlikely, though not impossible, that he will win again this year. First-time nominees, Martin McDonagh, Todd Field, and Ruben Östlund would be surprising winners.
Dan Kwan, Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All At Once 94%
Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans 3
Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin 2
Todd Field for Tár 1
Ruben Östlund for Triangle of Sadness <1
Actor in a Leading Role: Unlike last year when all five lead actor nominees had been nominated previously, this year they're all first-time nominees. On the surface, this appears to be a pretty even race between Golden Globe (Drama) winner, Austin Butler in Elvis, Golden Globe (Musical or Comedy) winner, Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin, and Screen Actors Guild winner, Brendan Fraser in The Whale. Ordinarily, the Screen Actors Guild win would give Brendan Fraser the edge, but what tips the balance in favour of Austin Butler and Colin Farrell is the fact that Elvis and The Banshees of Inisherin are nominated for Best Picture, whereas The Whale is not. However, some actors have previously won for performances in films lacking a Best Picture nomination (most recently Jeff Bridges in 2009's Crazy Heart), so Brendan Fraser has a good chance of winning. Bill Nighy and Paul Mescal would be very surprising winners here.
Austin Butler in Elvis 47%
Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin 38
Brendan Fraser in The Whale 13
Bill Nighy in Living 1
Paul Mescal in Aftersun 1
Actress in a Leading Role: First-time nominee Michelle Yeoh scores big for Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globe (musical or comedy) wins and is likely to win again here. Five-time nominee and Golden Globe (drama) winner, Cate Blanchett, has the next best chance of adding to her previous Lead Actress win for 2013's Blue Jasmine. Three-time nominee, Michelle Williams has an outside chance of upsetting the odds in this category, but first-time nominees, Ana de Armas and Andrea Riseborough are not really in the running to win this year.
Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once 91%
Cate Blanchett in Tár 7
Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans 2
Ana de Armas in Blonde 1
Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie 1

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