The following table provides predictions for the four main categories for the 98th Academy Awards presented on March 15, 2026. The nominees are presented in order of expected probability to win, with the probabilities (in percentages) given in the second column. Eventual winners shown in bold.
In a nutshell, the predictions are based on a statistical analysis of past Oscar history. In particular, I identify the influence of factors associated with past winners (such as other Oscar nominations, total number of Oscar nominations, previous Oscar nominations/wins, Golden Globe wins, Guild wins). I then calculate a score for each current nominee based on these factors - nominees with a higher score have more chance of winning (see the notes column in the table). For further details of how the predictions were made click here.
| Picture: This race most likely comes down to one of One Battle After Another or Sinners. One Battle After Another has the edge, having won the Producer's Guild Award and the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy. But Sinners has a record-breaking 16 nominations overall, including all the major categories except Actress in a Supporting Role. Hamnet isn't completely out of the running having won the Golden Globe for Best Drama. Neither are Sentimental Value or Marty Supreme, both of which have nine nominations overall and all-important Best Director nominations. Frankenstein also has nine nominations overall, but doesn't have a Best Director nomination. It's unlikely that this or any of the remaining four nominated films will win. | |
| One Battle After Another | 83% |
| Sinners | 10 |
| Hamnet | 2 |
| Sentimental Value | 2 |
| Marty Supreme | 1 |
| Frankenstein | 1 |
| Bugonia | <1 |
| F1 | <1 |
| The Secret Agent | <1 |
| Train Dreams | <1 |
| Director: Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated for the Directing Oscar three times previously but never won (for 2007's There Will Be Blood, 2017's Phantom Thread, and 2021's Licorice Pizza). It is probably his time to win it for One Battle After Another, given that he's already won this year's Director's Guild award. He's also been nominated five times for Screenplay Writer and three times for Best Picture. However, first-time nominee (for directing), Ryan Coogler, has a chance of upsetting the odds if Sinners has a good evening. Previous winner, Chloé Zhao (for 2020's Nomadland), and first-time nominees (for directing), Joachim Trier and Josh Safdie, would be surprising winners. | |
| Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another | 97% |
| Ryan Coogler for Sinners | 2 |
| Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value | 1 |
| Chloé Zhao for Hamnet | <1 |
| Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme | <1 |
| Actor in a Leading Role: This is the most open of these four races this year. Based on winning Best Male Actor in a Leading Role at this year's Actor Awards (presented by SAG-AFTRA), Michael B. Jordan is in the best position to win for Sinners. However, Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent and Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme both have a decent chance of adding an Oscar to their Golden Globe awards, with Chalamet in a particularly strong position as he has been nominated (but not won) in this category twice before (for 2017's Call Me By Your Name and 2024's A Complete Unknown). Previous winner (for 2015's The Revenant), Leonardo DiCaprio, has a slight chance of causing an upset for One Battle After Another. Finally, Ethan Hawke, who has two previous Actor in a Supporting Role nominations and two Screenplay Writer nominations, is unlikely to win for his first Lead Actor nomination in Blue Moon. | |
| Michael B. Jordan in Sinners | 66% |
| Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent | 19 |
| Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme | 12 |
| Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another | 3 |
| Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon | 1 |
| Actress in a Leading Role: Jessie Buckley is clearly in the driving seat for winning for her role in Hamnet, given her wins for Best Female Actor in a Leading Role at this year's Actor Awards and Golden Globe (Drama). She was previously nominated for Actress in a Supporting Role for 2021's The Lost Daughter, but this is her first Lead Actress nomination. Golden Globe (Musical or Comedy) winner, Rose Byrne, heads the chasing pack for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, along with Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value. Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue and Emma Stone in Bugonia would be surprising winners. Byrne and Reinsve are first-time nominees, while Hudson has a previous Supporting Actress nomination and Stone has two previous Lead Actress wins (for 2016's La La Land and 2023's Poor Things). | |
| Jessie Buckley in Hamnet | 85% |
| Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I'd Kick You | 6 |
| Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value | 6 |
| Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue | 2 |
| Emma Stone in Bugonia | 2 |
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