Lead Actress winners: ordered from most to least surprising | |||||
Year | Actual Winner | Prob | Predicted Winner | Prob | Ratio |
2002 | Nicole Kidman | 0.07 | Renee Zellweger | 0.90 | 0.08 |
1985 | Geraldine Page | 0.07 | Whoopi Goldberg | 0.70 | 0.10 |
2011 | Meryl Streep | 0.08 | Viola Davis | 0.71 | 0.11 |
1950 | Judy Holliday | 0.09 | Gloria Swanson | 0.76 | 0.12 |
1999 | Hilary Swank | 0.10 | Annette Bening | 0.78 | 0.13 |
1952 | Shirley Booth | 0.11 | Susan Hayward | 0.84 | 0.13 |
1956 | Ingrid Bergman | 0.10 | Deborah Kerr | 0.75 | 0.13 |
1967 | Katharine Hepburn | 0.06 | Faye Dunaway | 0.43 | 0.14 |
1966 | Elizabeth Taylor | 0.10 | Anouk Aimee | 0.67 | 0.15 |
1961 | Sophia Loren | 0.09 | Geraldine Page | 0.60 | 0.15 |
1981 | Katharine Hepburn | 0.05 | Meryl Streep | 0.33 | 0.15 |
2007 | Marion Cotillard | 0.11 | Julie Christie | 0.72 | 0.15 |
1973 | Glenda Jackson | 0.09 | Ellen Burstyn | 0.58 | 0.16 |
1969 | Maggie Smith | 0.09 | Genevieve Bujold | 0.54 | 0.17 |
1946 | Olivia de Havilland | 0.08 | Rosalind Russell | 0.43 | 0.19 |
1974 | Ellen Burstyn | 0.07 | Gena Rowlands | 0.37 | 0.19 |
1945 | Joan Crawford | 0.16 | Ingrid Bergman | 0.73 | 0.22 |
1960 | Elizabeth Taylor | 0.08 | Shirley MacLaine | 0.36 | 0.22 |
1959 | Simone Signoret | 0.16 | Elizabeth Taylor | 0.67 | 0.24 |
1970 | Glenda Jackson | 0.16 | Ali MacGraw | 0.61 | 0.26 |
1988 | Jodie Foster | 0.16 | Melanie Griffith | 0.55 | 0.29 |
1947 | Loretta Young | 0.13 | Rosalind Russell | 0.39 | 0.33 |
1962 | Anne Bancroft | 0.21 | Geraldine Page | 0.62 | 0.34 |
1951 | Vivien Leigh | 0.13 | Shelley Winters | 0.35 | 0.37 |
1965 | Julie Christie | 0.24 | Samantha Eggar | 0.59 | 0.41 |
1963 | Patricia Neal | 0.20 | Leslie Caron | 0.48 | 0.42 |
1940 | Ginger Rogers | 0.21 | Joan Fontaine | 0.49 | 0.43 |
1995 | Susan Sarandon | 0.22 | Sharon Stone | 0.39 | 0.56 |
1968 | Katharine Hepburn | 0.20 | Joanne Woodward | 0.34 | 0.59 |
1980 | Sissy Spacek | 0.32 | Mary Tyler Moore | 0.54 | 0.59 |
1949 | Olivia de Havilland | 0.19 | Jeanne Crain | 0.26 | 0.73 |
1968 | Barbra Streisand | 0.27 | Joanne Woodward | 0.34 | 0.79 |
1938 | Bette Davis | 0.21 | Wendy Hiller | 0.26 | 0.81 |
1941 | Joan Fontaine | 0.25 | Olivia de Havilland | 0.25 | 1.00 |
1978 | Jane Fonda | 0.29 | Jane Fonda | 0.29 | 1.00 |
2001 | Halle Berry | 0.34 | Halle Berry | 0.34 | 1.00 |
1971 | Jane Fonda | 0.34 | Jane Fonda | 0.34 | 1.00 |
1990 | Kathy Bates | 0.36 | Kathy Bates | 0.36 | 1.00 |
1977 | Diane Keaton | 0.36 | Diane Keaton | 0.36 | 1.00 |
1972 | Liza Minnelli | 0.37 | Liza Minnelli | 0.37 | 1.00 |
1982 | Meryl Streep | 0.38 | Meryl Streep | 0.38 | 1.00 |
1987 | Cher | 0.39 | Cher | 0.39 | 1.00 |
1939 | Vivien Leigh | 0.39 | Vivien Leigh | 0.39 | 1.00 |
1991 | Jodie Foster | 0.45 | Jodie Foster | 0.45 | 1.00 |
1943 | Jennifer Jones | 0.45 | Jennifer Jones | 0.45 | 1.00 |
1964 | Julia Andrews | 0.46 | Julia Andrews | 0.46 | 1.00 |
1989 | Jessica Tandy | 0.47 | Jessica Tandy | 0.47 | 1.00 |
1984 | Sally Field | 0.48 | Sally Field | 0.48 | 1.00 |
1942 | Greer Garson | 0.51 | Greer Garson | 0.51 | 1.00 |
1983 | Shirley MacLaine | 0.53 | Shirley MacLaine | 0.53 | 1.00 |
1994 | Jessica Lange | 0.55 | Jessica Lange | 0.55 | 1.00 |
1976 | Faye Dunaway | 0.55 | Faye Dunaway | 0.55 | 1.00 |
1953 | Audrey Hepburn | 0.55 | Audrey Hepburn | 0.55 | 1.00 |
1979 | Sally Field | 0.61 | Sally Field | 0.61 | 1.00 |
1957 | Joanne Woodward | 0.62 | Joanne Woodward | 0.62 | 1.00 |
1975 | Louise Fletcher | 0.64 | Louise Fletcher | 0.64 | 1.00 |
1954 | Grace Kelly | 0.64 | Grace Kelly | 0.64 | 1.00 |
1996 | Frances McDormand | 0.67 | Frances McDormand | 0.67 | 1.00 |
1958 | Susan Hayward | 0.67 | Susan Hayward | 0.67 | 1.00 |
1948 | Jane Wyman | 0.67 | Jane Wyman | 0.67 | 1.00 |
1992 | Emma Thompson | 0.69 | Emma Thompson | 0.69 | 1.00 |
1986 | Marlee Matlin | 0.69 | Marlee Matlin | 0.69 | 1.00 |
2013 | Cate Blanchett | 0.69 | Cate Blanchett | 0.69 | 1.00 |
2017 | Frances McDormand | 0.71 | Frances McDormand | 0.71 | 1.00 |
1993 | Holly Hunter | 0.75 | Holly Hunter | 0.75 | 1.00 |
2005 | Reese Witherspoon | 0.76 | Reese Witherspoon | 0.76 | 1.00 |
1955 | Anna Magnani | 0.81 | Anna Magnani | 0.81 | 1.00 |
1944 | Ingrid Bergman | 0.81 | Ingrid Bergman | 0.81 | 1.00 |
2012 | Jennifer Lawrence | 0.86 | Jennifer Lawrence | 0.86 | 1.00 |
2010 | Natalie Portman | 0.87 | Natalie Portman | 0.87 | 1.00 |
2003 | Charlize Theron | 0.87 | Charlize Theron | 0.87 | 1.00 |
1997 | Helen Hunt | 0.87 | Helen Hunt | 0.87 | 1.00 |
2014 | Julianne Moore | 0.90 | Julianne Moore | 0.90 | 1.00 |
2009 | Sandra Bullock | 0.90 | Sandra Bullock | 0.90 | 1.00 |
2008 | Kate Winslet | 0.92 | Kate Winslet | 0.92 | 1.00 |
1998 | Gwyneth Paltrow | 0.92 | Gwyneth Paltrow | 0.92 | 1.00 |
2004 | Hilary Swank | 0.93 | Hilary Swank | 0.93 | 1.00 |
2000 | Julia Roberts | 0.93 | Julia Roberts | 0.93 | 1.00 |
2016 | Emma Stone | 0.94 | Emma Stone | 0.94 | 1.00 |
2015 | Brie Larson | 0.94 | Brie Larson | 0.94 | 1.00 |
2006 | Helen Mirren | 0.96 | Helen Mirren | 0.96 | 1.00 |