Lead Actress winners: ordered from most to least surprising
Year	Actual Winner	Prob	Predicted Winner	Prob	Ratio
2002	Nicole Kidman	0.07	Renee Zellweger	0.90	0.08
1985	Geraldine Page	0.07	Whoopi Goldberg	0.70	0.10
2011	Meryl Streep	0.08	Viola Davis	0.71	0.11
1950	Judy Holliday	0.09	Gloria Swanson	0.76	0.12
1999	Hilary Swank	0.10	Annette Bening	0.78	0.13
1952	Shirley Booth	0.11	Susan Hayward	0.84	0.13
1956	Ingrid Bergman	0.10	Deborah Kerr	0.75	0.13
1967	Katharine Hepburn	0.06	Faye Dunaway	0.43	0.14
1966	Elizabeth Taylor	0.10	Anouk Aimee	0.67	0.15
1961	Sophia Loren	0.09	Geraldine Page	0.60	0.15
1981	Katharine Hepburn	0.05	Meryl Streep	0.33	0.15
2007	Marion Cotillard	0.11	Julie Christie	0.72	0.15
1973	Glenda Jackson	0.09	Ellen Burstyn	0.58	0.16
1969	Maggie Smith	0.09	Genevieve Bujold	0.54	0.17
1946	Olivia de Havilland	0.08	Rosalind Russell	0.43	0.19
1974	Ellen Burstyn	0.07	Gena Rowlands	0.37	0.19
1945	Joan Crawford	0.16	Ingrid Bergman	0.73	0.22
1960	Elizabeth Taylor	0.08	Shirley MacLaine	0.36	0.22
1959	Simone Signoret	0.16	Elizabeth Taylor	0.67	0.24
1970	Glenda Jackson	0.16	Ali MacGraw	0.61	0.26
1988	Jodie Foster	0.16	Melanie Griffith	0.55	0.29
1947	Loretta Young	0.13	Rosalind Russell	0.39	0.33
1962	Anne Bancroft	0.21	Geraldine Page	0.62	0.34
1951	Vivien Leigh	0.13	Shelley Winters	0.35	0.37
1965	Julie Christie	0.24	Samantha Eggar	0.59	0.41
1963	Patricia Neal	0.20	Leslie Caron	0.48	0.42
1940	Ginger Rogers	0.21	Joan Fontaine	0.49	0.43
1995	Susan Sarandon	0.22	Sharon Stone	0.39	0.56
1968	Katharine Hepburn	0.20	Joanne Woodward	0.34	0.59
1980	Sissy Spacek	0.32	Mary Tyler Moore	0.54	0.59
1949	Olivia de Havilland	0.19	Jeanne Crain	0.26	0.73
1968	Barbra Streisand	0.27	Joanne Woodward	0.34	0.79
1938	Bette Davis	0.21	Wendy Hiller	0.26	0.81
1941	Joan Fontaine	0.25	Olivia de Havilland	0.25	1.00
1978	Jane Fonda	0.29	Jane Fonda	0.29	1.00
2001	Halle Berry	0.34	Halle Berry	0.34	1.00
1971	Jane Fonda	0.34	Jane Fonda	0.34	1.00
1990	Kathy Bates	0.36	Kathy Bates	0.36	1.00
1977	Diane Keaton	0.36	Diane Keaton	0.36	1.00
1972	Liza Minnelli	0.37	Liza Minnelli	0.37	1.00
1982	Meryl Streep	0.38	Meryl Streep	0.38	1.00
1987	Cher	0.39	Cher	0.39	1.00
1939	Vivien Leigh	0.39	Vivien Leigh	0.39	1.00
1991	Jodie Foster	0.45	Jodie Foster	0.45	1.00
1943	Jennifer Jones	0.45	Jennifer Jones	0.45	1.00
1964	Julia Andrews	0.46	Julia Andrews	0.46	1.00
1989	Jessica Tandy	0.47	Jessica Tandy	0.47	1.00
1984	Sally Field	0.48	Sally Field	0.48	1.00
1942	Greer Garson	0.51	Greer Garson	0.51	1.00
1983	Shirley MacLaine	0.53	Shirley MacLaine	0.53	1.00
1994	Jessica Lange	0.55	Jessica Lange	0.55	1.00
1976	Faye Dunaway	0.55	Faye Dunaway	0.55	1.00
1953	Audrey Hepburn	0.55	Audrey Hepburn	0.55	1.00
1979	Sally Field	0.61	Sally Field	0.61	1.00
1957	Joanne Woodward	0.62	Joanne Woodward	0.62	1.00
1975	Louise Fletcher	0.64	Louise Fletcher	0.64	1.00
1954	Grace Kelly	0.64	Grace Kelly	0.64	1.00
1996	Frances McDormand	0.67	Frances McDormand	0.67	1.00
1958	Susan Hayward	0.67	Susan Hayward	0.67	1.00
1948	Jane Wyman	0.67	Jane Wyman	0.67	1.00
1992	Emma Thompson	0.69	Emma Thompson	0.69	1.00
1986	Marlee Matlin	0.69	Marlee Matlin	0.69	1.00
2013	Cate Blanchett	0.69	Cate Blanchett	0.69	1.00
2017	Frances McDormand	0.71	Frances McDormand	0.71	1.00
1993	Holly Hunter	0.75	Holly Hunter	0.75	1.00
2005	Reese Witherspoon	0.76	Reese Witherspoon	0.76	1.00
1955	Anna Magnani	0.81	Anna Magnani	0.81	1.00
1944	Ingrid Bergman	0.81	Ingrid Bergman	0.81	1.00
2012	Jennifer Lawrence	0.86	Jennifer Lawrence	0.86	1.00
2010	Natalie Portman	0.87	Natalie Portman	0.87	1.00
2003	Charlize Theron	0.87	Charlize Theron	0.87	1.00
1997	Helen Hunt	0.87	Helen Hunt	0.87	1.00
2014	Julianne Moore	0.90	Julianne Moore	0.90	1.00
2009	Sandra Bullock	0.90	Sandra Bullock	0.90	1.00
2008	Kate Winslet	0.92	Kate Winslet	0.92	1.00
1998	Gwyneth Paltrow	0.92	Gwyneth Paltrow	0.92	1.00
2004	Hilary Swank	0.93	Hilary Swank	0.93	1.00
2000	Julia Roberts	0.93	Julia Roberts	0.93	1.00
2016	Emma Stone	0.94	Emma Stone	0.94	1.00
2015	Brie Larson	0.94	Brie Larson	0.94	1.00
2006	Helen Mirren	0.96	Helen Mirren	0.96	1.00