Stochastic Shipyard Simulation with SimYard

Oliver Dain, Matthew Ginsberg, Erin Keenan, Iain Pardoe, John Pyle, Tristan Smith, and Andrew Stoneman

Abstract

SimYard is a stochastic shipyard simulation tool designed to evaluate the labor costs of executing different schedules in a shipyard production environment. SimYard simulates common production problems such as task delays and labor shortages. A simulated floor manager reacts to problems as they arise. Repeatedly simulating multiple schedules allows the user to compare the schedules on many different metrics, such as expected labor costs and the probability of missing the deadline. A SimYard simulation is driven by many inputs that describe the shipyard being simulated. Determining the correct values for these inputs can be framed as a multivariate calibration problem, which can be solved using inverse regression methods. Predictive sampling from the resulting model provides an appropriate adjustment for statistical uncertainty.

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Last updated: November 16, 2006


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