Iain's 2013 Oscar Predictions

The following table provides predictions for the four main categories for the 2013 Academy Awards. The nominees are presented in order of expected probability to win, with the probabilities (in percentages) given in the final column. Eventual winners shown in bold.

Category Nominee Probability (%) Notes
Picture 12 Years a Slave 67 Gravity, American Hustle, and 12 Years a Slave lead the pack with the most nominations, including a traditionally important Best Director nomination. However, the Producer's Guild and Golden Globe Drama wins for 12 Years a Slave give it the edge, despite Gravity sharing the Producer's Guild win and American Hustle winning the Golden Globe Comedy or Musical award. With three strong contenders, this category seems the hardest to call of the four major races this year.
Gravity 23
American Hustle 8
Nebraska 1
The Wolf of Wall Street 1
Captain Phillips <1
Dallas Buyers Club <1
Her <1
Philomena <1
Director Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity 85 While the directors of the three leading contenders for Best Picture are all in the mix, the Director's Guild winner, first-time nominee Alfonso Cuarón, has the best chance of winning, although David O. Russell benefits from two previous Best Director nominations. Martin Scorsese (with seven previous Best Director nominations) and Alexander Payne (with two previous Best Director nominations) round out the list of nominees.
David O. Russell for American Hustle 6
Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street 4
Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave 3
Alexander Payne for Nebraska 2
Actor in a Leading Role Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club 93 Matthew McConaughey (with his Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globe Drama wins) seems on course for an easy win, but Leonardo DiCaprio, with a Golden Globe Musical or Comedy win and two previous lead actor nominations (and no wins), has an outside chance of upsetting the odds. First-time nominees, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Christian Bale, and Bruce Dern, are unlikely to win this year.
Leonardo DiCaprio in The Wolf of Wall Street 4
Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years a Slave 1
Christian Bale in American Hustle 1
Bruce Dern in Nebraska 1
Actress in a Leading Role Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine 69 Golden Globe winners, Cate Blanchett (Drama) and Amy Adams (Musical or Comedy), lead the pack in this category, with Screen Actors Guild winner, Blanchett, most likely to add an Oscar. Judi Dench, Sandra Bullock, and Meryl Streep are probably not in the running to win this year, particularly since Bullock and Streep have won before (Streep twice).
Amy Adams in American Hustle 23
Judi Dench in Philomena 5
Sandra Bullock in Gravity 3
Meryl Streep in August: Osage County 1

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Last updated: Feb 28, 2014

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© 2014, Iain Pardoe